Week 5 — Top 5 ATS Picks
| Matchup | ATS Pick | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas at New England | NE −3.5 | NE 25–LV 19 |
| Indianapolis at Pittsburgh | PIT −2.5 | PIT 25–IND 21 |
| Cincinnati at Miami | CIN −6.5 | CIN 26–MIA 17 |
| Philadelphia vs. Jacksonville — London | JAX −6.5 | JAX 20–PHI 12 |
| Minnesota at New Orleans | MN −1.5 | MN 27–NO 21 |
ATS selections are graded against the listed contest spreads. These picks do not indicate wagers placed.
2026 NFL Week 5 Game Forecasts
Final pregame forecasts include the spread, moneyline and total selections. All kickoffs are Central time.
Confidence: unique outright-winner ranks from 2 (lowest remaining) to 15 (highest). Thursday’s TB selection retains rank 1. Ranks use final forecast margins, with matchup-score advantages breaking ties; they are not win probabilities or separate ATS/total confidence ratings.
London • Sunday, October 11 • 8:30 a.m. CT
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Forecast: JAX 20, PHI 12
Jacksonville owns the 72–14 matchup advantage. The manual forecast lowers Philadelphia’s scoring expectation and calls for a controlled, low-scoring game. The projected eight-point margin leaves only half a point against the spread.
Sunday • 12 p.m. CT Games
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins
Forecast: MIA 17, CIN 26
Cincinnati leads the matchup panel 65–23. The forecast supports a nine-point road win, with the total only half a point above the posted number.
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
Forecast: NO 21, MN 27
Minnesota’s 62–24 matchup advantage supports the road favorite. A six-point projected victory provides a 3.5-point cushion against the spread.
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots
Forecast: NE 25, LV 19
The matchup score is close at 44–40 for New England, but the forecast gives the Patriots a six-point home win. The Under projection is just one point below the line.
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets
Forecast: NYJ 23, CLE 20
The Jets lead the matchup panel 53–32. The projected three-point win narrowly covers -2.5, while the combined forecast reaches 43 points.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Forecast: TEN 13, HOU 23
Houston’s 49–34 matchup edge accompanies a manual forecast of a ten-point road win. Tennessee’s projected 13 points keep the combined score below the total.
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
Forecast: PIT 25, IND 21
Pittsburgh leads the panel 61–23 and is forecast to win by four at home. The ATS cushion is 1.5 points; the projected total is 46.
New York Giants at Washington Commanders
Forecast: WAS 26, NYG 22
Washington’s 59–25 matchup edge supports the home winner. The four-point forecast margin clears -3.5 narrowly, with 48 combined points favoring the Over.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Forecast: GB 22, CHI 28
Chicago has the largest matchup advantage on the board, 69–11. The forecast calls for a six-point road victory and 50 combined points.
Sunday • 3 p.m. CT Window
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Forecast: LAC 21, DEN 20
The Chargers lead the matchup panel 50–29 and are forecast to win by one despite receiving 3.5 points. That supports LAC for both the outright and ATS selections.
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
Forecast: AZ 25, DET 32
Arizona narrowly leads the matchup score 39–37, while the final forecast favors Detroit by seven. This is a disagreement between the factor panel and score forecast; the selections follow the final forecast.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Forecast: SEA 23, SF 17
Seattle holds a modest 44–39 matchup edge. The final forecast gives the Seahawks a six-point home win and a combined total of 40.
Week 5 Survivor Pick
Primary Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
Forecast: JAX 20, PHI 12
Jacksonville’s 72–14 matchup advantage and the final eight-point winning margin make the Jaguars our Week 5 Survivor selection. Survivor requires an outright victory, so the narrow projected cover at -7.5 is separate from this choice.
Alternatives below retain your requested order. Use only teams still available under your pool’s rules.
| Alternative | Forecast | Matchup score |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | PIT 25–IND 21 | PIT 61–IND 23 |
| Minnesota Vikings | MN 27–NO 21 | MN 62–NO 24 |
| New England Patriots | NE 25–LV 19 | NE 44–LV 40 |
Pittsburgh has a strong factor advantage at home, Minnesota has a six-point projected road win, and New England has a six-point projected home win with a closer matchup score.
Sunday Night Football • October 11 • 7:20 p.m. CT
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons
Forecast: ATL 29, BAL 22
Atlanta leads the matchup panel narrowly, 42–38. The final forecast favors the Falcons by seven, reversing the direction of the displayed model average, which favors Baltimore.
Monday Night Football • October 12 • 7:15 p.m. CT
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams
Forecast: LAR 28, BUF 24
Buffalo leads the matchup score 43–38, but the final forecast favors the Rams by four at home. Los Angeles clears -3 by one point, with 52 combined points supporting the Over.
Click the Sunday ticket logo below to track my picks for the 2026 season.
