London Game — Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders
Market Line: IND -4 / WAS +4
Total: 47
Model Avg Spread: IND -0.5
Matchup Score: IND 43 – WAS 35
Confidence: 7
Game Capsule
Week 4 Sunday begins across the pond with Indianapolis and Washington meeting at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. The model gives Indianapolis the advantage, projecting a 23–17 Colts victory.
Indianapolis holds a 43–35 advantage in Total Matchup Score, while the forecast produces a six-point Colts victory. That projected margin is enough to cover the current IND -4 market line, although the Model Avg Spread of IND -0.5 makes this a less decisive ATS position than the straight-up forecast.
Washington enters the London matchup without starting quarterback Jayden Daniels, putting Marcus Mariota back under center. The Commanders are also dealing with several other important absences. Indianapolis has its own injury concerns, including the loss of wide receiver Keenan Allen.
The total provides another interesting model discrepancy. The market is sitting at 47, while our projected final score produces only 40 combined points. That seven-point gap gives the model a clear lean toward the Under.
ATS: Indianapolis -4
Moneyline: Indianapolis
Total: Under 47
Confidence: 7
Final Prediction: Indianapolis 23, Washington 17
NFL Week 4 Sunday Game Capsules — 2026
Week 4 continues with a full Sunday slate. Each selection below combines the Matchup Scoring Panel, projected final score, Model Avg Spread, current market line and matchup score.
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills — 12:00 PM CT
Market Line: BUF -7 / NE +7
Total: 49.5
Model Avg Spread: BUF -5.5
Matchup Score: BUF 67 – NE 15
Confidence: 14
Game Capsule
Buffalo owns one of the most decisive matchup-score advantages of Week 4, overwhelming New England 67–15 in the Matchup Scoring Panel. The Bills are therefore the clear straight-up selection.
The ATS decision is different. Our forecast calls for Buffalo to win 26–20, a six-point margin against a market spread of seven. The Model Avg Spread of BUF -5.5 also comes in below the market number, creating value on New England at +7.
The projected 46 combined points also fall below the market total of 49.5.
ATS: New England +7
Moneyline: Buffalo
Total: Under 49.5
Confidence: 14
Final Prediction: Buffalo 26, New England 20
New York Jets @ Chicago Bears — 12:00 PM CT
Market Line: CHI -3.5 / NYJ +3.5
Total: 43
Model Avg Spread: CHI -4.5
Matchup Score: CHI 45 – NYJ 41
Confidence: 11
Game Capsule
Chicago gets the advantage from multiple parts of the model. The Bears hold a 45–41 matchup-score edge, while the Model Avg Spread makes Chicago approximately a 4.5-point favorite.
The projected final is even stronger, with Chicago winning 24–16. That eight-point projected margin gives the Bears enough separation to cover the current -3.5.
The forecast generates only 40 combined points against a market total of 43, producing an Under selection.
ATS: Chicago -3.5
Moneyline: Chicago
Total: Under 43
Confidence: 11
Final Prediction: Chicago 24, New York 16
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals — 12:00 PM CT
Market Line: CIN -2.5 / JAX +2.5
Total: 51.5
Model Avg Spread: CIN -2.5
Matchup Score: JAX 45 – CIN 43
Confidence: 9
Game Capsule
This is one of the more balanced matchups on the board. Jacksonville owns a narrow 45–43 matchup-score advantage, but the scoring forecast points in the opposite direction.
Cincinnati is projected to win 31–27, giving the Bengals a four-point projected margin against a -2.5 spread. The Model Avg Spread also lands directly at CIN -2.5.
Offensively, the forecast expects considerably more scoring than several other Week 4 games. The projected 58 combined points sit comfortably above the market total of 51.5.
ATS: Cincinnati -2.5
Moneyline: Cincinnati
Total: Over 51.5
Confidence: 9
Final Prediction: Cincinnati 31, Jacksonville 27
Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans — 12:00 PM CT
Market Line: HOU -3 / DAL +3
Total: 48
Model Avg Spread: HOU -0.5
Matchup Score: HOU 49 – DAL 39
Confidence: 8
Game Capsule
Houston holds a 49–39 matchup-score advantage, and our scoring forecast agrees with the direction of that edge, projecting a 24–20 Texans victory.
That four-point projected margin narrowly clears the current Houston -3 spread. However, the Model Avg Spread is considerably tighter at HOU -0.5, making this more attractive as a moneyline position than an aggressive ATS play.
The projected 44 combined points fall four points below the market total, giving the model an Under lean.
ATS: Houston -3
Moneyline: Houston
Total: Under 48
Confidence: 8
Final Prediction: Houston 24, Dallas 20
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles — 12:00 PM CT
Market Line: LAR -3.5 / PHI +3.5
Total: 43
Model Avg Spread: LAR -0.5
Matchup Score: LAR 47 – PHI 30
Confidence: 5
Game Capsule
Los Angeles owns a significant 47–30 matchup-score advantage, but the projected final tells us not to automatically lay the points.
The Rams are projected to win only 22–21. With Los Angeles laying 3.5, Philadelphia can lose the game outright and still cover the spread. The Model Avg Spread of LAR -0.5 reinforces that distinction.
Our projected total lands exactly on 43. With no meaningful separation between the forecast and market, the total is a pass.
ATS: Philadelphia +3.5
Moneyline: Los Angeles Rams
Total: Pass / Lean Under 43
Confidence: 5
Final Prediction: Los Angeles 22, Philadelphia 21
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 12:00 PM CT
Market Line: GB -3 / TB +3
Total: 39
Model Avg Spread: GB -1.5
Matchup Score: TB 43 – GB 40
Confidence: 6
Game Capsule
Tampa Bay holds a narrow 43–40 matchup-score advantage, while the final-score projection gives Green Bay a narrow victory. That creates another ATS and moneyline split.
Our forecast has Green Bay winning 24–22, but a two-point victory would not cover the Packers -3. Tampa Bay therefore gets the ATS selection while Green Bay remains the straight-up pick.
The forecast produces 46 combined points against a market total of only 39, creating one of the larger total discrepancies on the Sunday board.
ATS: Tampa Bay +3
Moneyline: Green Bay
Total: Over 39
Confidence: 6
Final Prediction: Green Bay 24, Tampa Bay 22
Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens — 12:00 PM CT
Market Line: BAL -12 / TEN +12
Total: 43
Model Avg Spread: BAL -8
Matchup Score: BAL 59 – TEN 16
Confidence: 16
Game Capsule
Baltimore receives our highest confidence rating of Week 4. The Ravens dominate the Matchup Scoring Panel 59–16 and are projected to win the game 27–19.
But there is an important distinction between winning the game and covering a 12-point spread. Our projected margin is eight, and the Model Avg Spread is also BAL -8. Tennessee therefore offers four points of ATS value relative to the model.
The projected score produces 46 combined points, putting the model slightly above the market total of 43.
ATS: Tennessee +12
Moneyline: Baltimore
Total: Over 43
Confidence: 16
Final Prediction: Baltimore 27, Tennessee 19
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants — 12:00 PM CT
Market Line: AZ -2.5 / NYG +2.5
Total: 44.5
Model Avg Spread: AZ -6
Matchup Score: NYG 61 – AZ 17
Confidence: 4
Game Capsule
This may be the most unusual disagreement on the Week 4 board. The Matchup Scoring Panel gives New York an overwhelming 61–17 advantage, while the market has Arizona installed as the favorite.
Our scoring forecast agrees with the matchup panel on the straight-up winner, projecting a 24–22 Giants victory. Taking NYG +2.5 therefore provides points with a team the forecast expects to win outright.
The projected 46 combined points also come in slightly above the market total of 44.5.
ATS: New York Giants +2.5
Moneyline: New York Giants
Total: Over 44.5
Confidence: 4
Final Prediction: New York Giants 24, Arizona 22
Week 4 Afternoon Games
Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings — 3:05 PM CT
Market Line: MN -10 / MIA +10
Total: 38.5
Model Avg Spread: MN -5.5
Matchup Score: MN 61 – MIA 27
Confidence: 15
Game Capsule
Minnesota is our Week 4 Survivor selection and receives the second-highest confidence rating on the board. The Vikings dominate the matchup score 61–27 and are projected to win 20–12.
Survivor and ATS are two different questions, however. Our forecast gives Minnesota an eight-point victory while the market asks the Vikings to cover 10. The Model Avg Spread is even lower at MN -5.5, making Miami +10 the ATS side.
The projected 32 combined points are well below the total of 38.5, making the Under another model-supported position.
ATS: Miami +10
Moneyline: Minnesota
Total: Under 38.5
Confidence: 15
Survivor: Minnesota Vikings
Final Prediction: Minnesota 20, Miami 12
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders — 3:25 PM CT
Market Line: KC -4.5 / LV +4.5
Total: 47.5
Model Avg Spread: KC -7.5
Matchup Score: KC 43 – LV 43
Confidence: 10
Game Capsule
The Matchup Scoring Panel is completely even at 43–43, but the spread model and final-score projection both favor Kansas City.
Our forecast calls for a 28–20 Chiefs victory, while the Model Avg Spread makes Kansas City a 7.5-point favorite. With the market sitting at KC -4.5, the Chiefs have meaningful model separation from the available number.
The projected 48 combined points sit just above the current total of 47.5, resulting in a slight Over lean.
ATS: Kansas City -4.5
Moneyline: Kansas City
Total: Over 47.5
Confidence: 10
Final Prediction: Kansas City 28, Las Vegas 20
Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks — 3:25 PM CT
Market Line: SEA -7 / LAC +7
Total: 43
Model Avg Spread: SEA -9
Matchup Score: SEA 59 – LAC 24
Confidence: 12
Game Capsule
Seattle owns another substantial matchup advantage, beating Los Angeles 59–24 in the Matchup Scoring Panel. That makes the Seahawks one of our stronger straight-up selections of Week 4.
The projected score is tighter than the matchup score suggests. Seattle is forecast to win 24–18, a six-point margin against a seven-point market spread. That gives the Chargers the ATS selection despite Seattle remaining the ML pick.
The forecast produces 42 combined points, just below the market total of 43.
ATS: Los Angeles Chargers +7
Moneyline: Seattle
Total: Under 43
Confidence: 12
Final Prediction: Seattle 24, Los Angeles Chargers 18
Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers — 3:25 PM CT
Market Line: SF -2.5 / DEN +2.5
Total: 47.5
Model Avg Spread: SF -13
Matchup Score: SF 63 – DEN 12
Confidence: 13
Game Capsule
San Francisco owns one of the largest matchup-score advantages of the entire week at 63–12. The Model Avg Spread is also extremely bullish on the 49ers at SF -13.
Our final-score forecast is much more conservative, projecting San Francisco to win 26–23. Even that three-point margin is enough to narrowly clear the current SF -2.5 spread.
The forecast produces 49 combined points against a total of 47.5, creating a modest Over lean.
ATS: San Francisco -2.5
Moneyline: San Francisco
Total: Over 47.5
Confidence: 13
Final Prediction: San Francisco 26, Denver 23
🏆 NFL Survivor — Week 4
| Week | Survivor Pick | Alternate Options |
|---|---|---|
| Week 4 | Minnesota Vikings | Baltimore Ravens / Chicago Bears |
Week 4 Survivor Pick: Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is the official Week 4 Survivor selection, with Baltimore and Chicago serving as alternate options.
🏈 ESPN Contest — Week 4 Top 5 ATS Picks
| Rank | Matchup | ATS Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND @ WAS | IND -3.5 |
| 2 | NE @ BUF | NE +7.5 |
| 3 | NYJ @ CHI | CHI -3.5 |
| 4 | AZ @ NYG | NYG +1.5 |
| 5 | JAX @ CIN | CIN -2.5 |
🌙 Sunday Night Football — Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers
Market Line: DET -4 / CAR +4
Total: 51
Model Avg Spread: DET -0.5
Matchup Score: CAR 54 – DET 27
Confidence: 3
Game Capsule
Sunday Night Football presents one of the more interesting disagreements inside the Week 4 model. Carolina dominates the Matchup Scoring Panel 54–27, but the projected final score points in the opposite direction.
The model forecasts a 30–24 Detroit victory, giving the Lions a six-point projected margin against the current DET -4 market line. That provides enough separation for Detroit to get the ATS selection.
There is reason for caution, however. The Model Avg Spread makes Detroit only a 0.5-point favorite, while the matchup factors strongly favor Carolina. The conflicting signals keep Detroit near the bottom of our straight-up confidence rankings despite the six-point projected victory.
The projected final produces 54 combined points against a market total of 51, giving the model a lean toward the Over.
ATS: Detroit -4
Moneyline: Detroit
Total: Over 51
Confidence: 3
Final Prediction: Detroit 30, Carolina 24
🏈 Monday Night Football — Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Market Line: ATL -2 / NO +2
Total: 47.5
Model Avg Spread: NO -0.5
Matchup Score: ATL 47 – NO 34
Confidence: 2
Game Capsule
Week 4 closes with an NFC South matchup that produces another disagreement between the Matchup Scoring Panel and our final-score forecast. Atlanta owns the matchup-score advantage 47–34, but the scoring model projects New Orleans to win the game.
Our forecast has the Saints winning 27–24. With New Orleans currently receiving two points, the model gets both the home underdog and a team it projects to win outright.
The Model Avg Spread also slightly favors New Orleans at NO -0.5, creating additional support for the Saints relative to the market’s ATL -2. The conflicting 47–34 matchup score, however, prevents this from becoming a high-confidence play.
The projected score produces 51 combined points, which is 3.5 points above the market total of 47.5. That gives the model an Over selection for Monday night.
ATS: New Orleans +2
Moneyline: New Orleans
Total: Over 47.5
Confidence: 2
Final Prediction: New Orleans 27, Atlanta 24
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