NFL Week 2 Game Capsules – 2026
Week 2 brings several interesting disagreements between the projected final score and the betting market. The game capsules below use our model’s projected score, the frozen Week 2 spread and total, and our straight-up confidence rankings. Confidence is ranked from 1 through 16, with 16 representing the highest straight-up confidence.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
Model Forecast: Carolina 27, Atlanta 24
ATS: Carolina -2.5
Moneyline: Carolina
ML Confidence: 5
Total: Over 43.5
Carolina is projected to win by three points, narrowly clearing the 2.5-point spread. The projected total reaches 51 points, creating a 7.5-point cushion above the market total. This is one of the Week 2 matchups where the model’s ATS and moneyline directions agree.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Model Forecast: Chicago 25, Minnesota 23
ATS: Minnesota +4.5
Moneyline: Chicago
ML Confidence: 3
Total: Under 48.5
The model projects Chicago to win a close game while Minnesota stays inside the number. The 48-point projected total sits just half a point below the market, making the total considerably thinner than many of the other Week 2 projections.
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans
Model Forecast: Cincinnati 33, Houston 29
ATS: Cincinnati +2.5
Moneyline: Cincinnati
ML Confidence: 6
Total: Over 46
Cincinnati is an underdog on the market but is projected to win outright by four points. The larger model discrepancy is on the total: the projected 62 points are 16 points above the posted 46. Cincinnati is therefore both the projected ATS side and the projected outright winner.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots
Model Forecast: New England 23, Pittsburgh 19
ATS: Pittsburgh +5
Moneyline: New England
ML Confidence: 7
Total: Over 41.5
New England is projected to win by four, leaving Pittsburgh just inside the five-point spread. The projected total of 42 is only half a point above the market, so the model’s stronger distinction here is between New England straight up and Pittsburgh against the spread.
Green Bay Packers at New York Jets
Model Forecast: Green Bay 28, New York Jets 22
ATS: Green Bay -3.5
Moneyline: Green Bay
ML Confidence: 10
Total: Over 44.5
Green Bay is projected to win by six points, enough to cover the 3.5-point spread. The model also projects 50 combined points against a market total of 44.5. The ATS, moneyline and total projections therefore point in the same general direction.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans
Model Forecast: Philadelphia 25, Tennessee 16
ATS: Philadelphia -7
Moneyline: Philadelphia
ML Confidence: 15
Total: Over 39.5
Philadelphia carries one of the strongest straight-up confidence rankings of Week 2. The model projects a nine-point victory against a seven-point spread. The projected total of 41 is only modestly above the market number, making the Philadelphia side more pronounced than the total projection.
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens
Model Forecast: Baltimore 37, New Orleans 31
ATS: New Orleans +8.5
Moneyline: Baltimore
ML Confidence: 13
Total: Over 47
Baltimore is projected to win, but the six-point projected margin leaves New Orleans inside the 8.5-point spread. The total is the major model discrepancy: 68 projected points versus a market total of 47, a 21-point difference.
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Model Forecast: Tampa Bay 26, Cleveland 20
ATS: Cleveland +8
Moneyline: Tampa Bay
ML Confidence: 12
Total: Over 41.5
Tampa Bay is projected to win by six, while Cleveland remains inside the eight-point spread. The model projects 46 total points, 4.5 points above the posted total. Tampa Bay also belongs on this week’s Survivor shortlist based on the straight-up projection.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos
Model Forecast: Jacksonville 23, Denver 22
ATS: Jacksonville +3
Moneyline: Jacksonville
ML Confidence: 2
Total: 45 – Projected Over
Jacksonville is projected to pull off a narrow outright upset, but the one-point margin keeps this near the bottom of the straight-up confidence rankings. The model projects exactly 45 combined points, matching the posted total and producing no model edge on the Over/Under.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
Model Forecast: Los Angeles Chargers 23, Las Vegas 21
ATS: Las Vegas +6.5
Moneyline: Los Angeles Chargers
ML Confidence: 4
Total: Over 43.5
The Chargers are projected to win by only two points, considerably less than the 6.5-point market spread. That puts Las Vegas on the ATS side while Los Angeles remains the straight-up selection. The total projection of 44 is almost identical to the market number.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Model Forecast: Seattle 26, Arizona 20
ATS: Seattle -4
Moneyline: Seattle
ML Confidence: 11
Total: Over 41
Seattle is projected to win by six points against a four-point spread. The projected 46 combined points also sit five points above the market total. Seattle therefore receives alignment from the model on both the ATS and straight-up sides.
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
Model Forecast: Dallas 29, Washington 24
ATS: Dallas +4
Moneyline: Dallas
ML Confidence: 8
Total: Over 50.5
Dallas is a market underdog but is projected by the model to win outright by five points. That makes Dallas the ATS and moneyline side in the model. The projected total of 53 is 2.5 points above the market number.
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers
Model Forecast: San Francisco 24, Miami 16
ATS: Miami +13.5
Moneyline: San Francisco
ML Confidence: 14
Total: Under 45
San Francisco is projected to win by eight points, but that margin is substantially smaller than the 13.5-point market spread. The result is a split projection: San Francisco straight up and Miami against the spread. The projected total of 40 points also places the model five points below the market total. San Francisco is one of the leading Survivor candidates.
Week 2 Survivor Shortlist
Our Week 2 Survivor evaluation focuses on winning the game outright, rather than covering the spread. Three teams stand out from the current model card:
Survivor Shortlist: San Francisco, Kansas City and Tampa Bay.
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs
Model Forecast: Kansas City 32, Indianapolis 23
ATS: Kansas City -7
Moneyline: Kansas City
ML Confidence: 16
Total: Over 47
Kansas City receives the highest straight-up confidence ranking on the Week 2 card. The model projects a nine-point Chiefs victory against a seven-point spread, while the projected 55 combined points are eight points above the posted total. Kansas City is also one of the primary Survivor candidates this week.
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams
Model Forecast: Los Angeles Rams 25, New York Giants 20
ATS: New York Giants +7
Moneyline: Los Angeles Rams
ML Confidence: 9
Total: Under 48
Los Angeles is projected to win by five, leaving the Giants inside the seven-point spread. The projected total of 45 is three points below the market number. The model therefore separates the straight-up winner from the ATS selection.
Model projections are informational and reflect the numbers available at the time of publication. Betting lines can move, so always compare the current market before placing a wager. No projection guarantees an outcome.
