Week 17
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders
Forecast: DAL 34 – WAS 20
Projected margin (fair line): DAL -10
Against the Spread
Market line: DAL -9.5
Pick: DAL -9.5 (covers)
Edge: 0.5 pt fair vs market • Cover margin vs line: 4.5
Estimated cover probability: 29%
Moneyline
Winner: Dallas Cowboys
Estimated win probability: =65%
Total (O/U)
Market total: 50.5/strong>
Projected total: 54
Tilt: Over 50.5 (small lean)
Why this leans Dallas Cowboys & Over
- Projected line -10 vs market -9.5 → 0.5 pts of value; forecast 34–20 covers by 4.5.
- Model implies 29% ATS cover for DAL at -9.5
- Projected total (54) above market (50.5) → Under lean; My data model signals small edge on the Cowboys
Notes: ATS% and ML% derived from model forecast with historical residual volatility.
Week 17
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
Forecast: DET 30 – MN 22
Projected margin (fair line): DET -7.5
Against the Spread
Market line: DET -7.5
Pick: DET -7.5 (covers)
Edge: 1.5 pt fair vs market • Cover margin vs line: 0.5
Estimated cover probability: 50%
Moneyline
Winner: Detroit Lions
Estimated win probability: =65%
Total (O/U)
Market total: 43.5/strong>
Projected total: 52
Tilt: Over 43.5 (small lean)
Why this leans Detroit Lions & Over
- Projected line -8 vs market -7.5 → 0.5 pts of value; forecast 30–22 covers by 0.5.
- Model implies 50% ATS cover for DET at -7.5
- Projected total (52) above market (43.5) → Over lean; My data model signals small edge on the Lions
Notes: ATS% and ML% derived from model forecast with historical residual volatility.
TNF • Week 17
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
Forecast: DEN 24 – KC 13
Projected margin (fair line): KC +13.5
Against the Spread
Market line: DEN -13.5
Pick: KC +13.5 (covers)
Edge: 10.5 pt fair vs market • Cover margin vs line: 10.5
Estimated cover probability: 78%
Moneyline
Winner: Denver Broncos
Estimated win probability: =93%
Total (O/U)
Market total: 36.5
Projected total: 37
Tilt: Over 37.5 (small lean)
Why this leans Kansas City Chiefs & Under
- Projected line -3 vs market -13.5 → 10.5 pts of value; forecast 24–13 covers by 2.5.
- Model implies 78% ATS cover for KC at +13.5
- Projected total (37) above market (36.5) → Over lean; My data model signals small edge on the Chiefs
Notes: ATS% and ML% derived from model forecast with historical residual volatility.