TNF • Week 15
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Forecast: ATL 23 – TB 20
Projected margin (fair line): TB -2.5
Against the Spread
Market line: TB -4.5
Pick: ATL +4.5 (covers)
Edge: 2 pts fair vs market • Cover margin vs line: 2
Estimated cover probability: 56%
Moneyline
Winner: Atlanta Falcons
Estimated win probability: =33%
Total (O/U)
Market total: 44.5
Projected total: 43
Tilt: Under 44.5 (small lean)
Why this leans Atlanta Falcons & Under
- Projected line -2.5 vs market -4.5 → 2 pts of value; forecast 23–20 covers by 7.
- Model implies 56% ATS cover for ATL at +4.5
- Projected total (51) below market (54.5) → Under lean; My data model signals small edge on the Falcons
Notes: ATS% and ML% derived from model forecast with historical residual volatility.