TNF • Week 14
Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions
Forecast: DAL 24 – DET 27
Projected margin (fair line): DAL +3
Against the Spread
Market line: DET -3
Pick: DAL +3 (covers)
Edge: 0 pts fair vs market • Cover margin vs line: 0
Estimated cover probability: 50%
Moneyline
Winner: Detroit Lions
Estimated win probability: =65%
Total (O/U)
Market total: 54.5
Projected total: 51
Tilt: Under 54.5 (small lean)
Why this leans Dallas Cowboys & Under
- Projected line -3 vs market -3.5 → 0.5 pts of value; forecast 24–27 covers by +0.5.
- Model implies 50% ATS cover for DET at +3.5
- Projected total (51) below market (54.5) → Under lean; My data model signals small edge on the Cowboys
Notes: ATS% and ML% derived from model forecast with historical residual volatility.