TNF • Week 10
Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Forecast: DEN 24 – LV 13
Projected margin (fair line): DEN 10
Against the Spread
Market line: DEN -9
Pick: DEN -9 (covers)
Edge: 1 pts fair vs market • Cover margin vs line: 9
Estimated cover probability: 53%
Moneyline
Winner: Denver Broncos
Estimated win probability: =68%
Total (O/U)
Market total: 42.5
Projected total: 37
Tilt: Under 42.5 (small lean)
Why this leans Denver Broncos & Under
- Projected line -10 vs market -9 → 1 pts of value; forecast 24–13 covers by +2.
- Model implies 53% ATS cover for DEN at -9
- Projected total (37) below market (42.5) → Under lean; My data model signals edge on Denver, the Broncos defense will take over this game and force turnovers to win this game and cover the spread1
Notes: ATS% and ML% derived from model forecast with historical residual volatility. Treat total as lower confidence than