TNF • Week 8
Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Chargers
Forecast: MN 24 – LAC 22
Projected margin (fair line): MN −0.5
Against the Spread
Market line: MN +3.5
Pick: MN +3.5 (covers)
Edge: 3.5 pts fair vs market • Cover margin vs line: 3.5
Estimated cover probability: 60%
Moneyline
Winner: Minnesota Vikings
Estimated win probability: =75%
Total (O/U)
Market total: 45
Projected total: 46
Tilt: Over 45 (small lean)
Why this leans Minnesota Vikings & Over
- Projected line -0.5 vs market 3.5 → 3.5 pts of value; forecast 24–22 covers by +4.
- Model implies 60% ATS cover for MN at -0.5
- Projected total (46) above market (45) → Over lean; My data model signals edge on NFC Teams vs AFC this season NFC teams 26-12 ATS thru 7 weeks versus AFC teams.
Notes: ATS% and ML% derived from model forecast with historical residual volatility. Treat total as lower confidence than