TNF • Week 7
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Forecast: PIT 23 – CIN 20
Projected margin (fair line): PIT −6
Against the Spread
Market line: CIN 5.5
Pick: CIN 5.5 (covers)
Edge: 0.5 pts fair vs market • Cover margin vs line: 0.5
Estimated cover probability: 51%
Moneyline
Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers
Estimated win probability: =66%
Total (O/U)
Market total: 44
Projected total: 52
Tilt: Over 44 (small lean)
Why this leans Cincinnati Bengals & Over
- Projected line 6 vs market 5.5 → 0.5 pts of value; forecast 24–21 covers by +2.
- Model implies 51% ATS cover for CIN at 5.5
- Projected total (52) above market (44) → Over lean; My data model signals edge on home division dogs on primetime(TNF).
Notes: ATS% and ML% derived from model forecast with historical residual volatility. Treat total as lower confidence than