TNF • Week 3
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
Forecast: BUF 34 – MIA 19
Projected margin: BUF +15
Against the Spread
Market line: BUF −12.5
Pick: BUF −12.5 (covers)
Estimated cover probability: ~57%
Moneyline
Winner: Buffalo Bills
Estimated win probability: ~87%
Total (O/U)
Market total: 50
Projected total: 53
Tilt: Over 50 (light/moderate lean)
Why this leans Bills & Over
- Score projection creates a +2.5 edge vs the −12.5 spread (win by ~15).
- My NFL data model implies ~57% ATS cover for BUF with this margin profile.
- Projected total (53) sits a few points above the market (50) → modest Over tilt.