TNF • Week 4
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
Forecast: SEA 27 – AZ 25
Projected margin: SEA -2
Against the Spread
Market line: SEA −1.5
Pick: SEA −1.5 (covers)
Estimated cover probability: 54%
Moneyline
Winner: Seattle Seahawks
Estimated win probability: 69%
Total (O/U)
Market total: 43
Projected total: 52
Tilt: Over 50 (light/moderate lean)
Why this leans Seahawks & Over
- Score projection creates a +2 edge vs the −1.5 spread (win by 2).
- My NFL data model implies 54% ATS cover for SEA with this margin profile.
- Projected total (52) sits above the market (43) → modest Over tilt.