TNF • Week 16
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
Forecast: LAR 17 – SEA 20
Projected margin (fair line): SEA PK
Against the Spread
Market line: LAR -1
Pick: SEA +1 (covers)
Edge: 1 pt fair vs market • Cover margin vs line: 1
Estimated cover probability: 50%
Moneyline
Winner: Seattle Seahawks
Estimated win probability: =65%
Total (O/U)
Market total: 44
Projected total: 37
Tilt: Under 44 (small lean)
Why this leans Seattle Seahawks & Under
- Projected line PK vs market -1 → 1 pts of value; forecast 20–17 covers by 3.
- Model implies 50% ATS cover for SEA at +1
- Projected total (37) below market (44) → Under lean; My data model signals small edge on the Seahawks
Notes: ATS% and ML% derived from model forecast with historical residual volatility.