TNF • Week 12
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans
Forecast: BUF 20 – HOU 17
Projected margin (fair line): HOU +6
Against the Spread
Market line: BUF -6
Pick: HOU +6 (covers)
Edge: 4 pts fair vs market • Cover margin vs line: 6
Estimated cover probability: 62%
Moneyline
Winner: Buffalo Bills
Estimated win probability: =77%
Total (O/U)
Market total: 43.5
Projected total: 37
Tilt: Under 43.5 (small lean)
Why this leans Houston Texans & Under
- Projected line -2 vs market -6 → 4 pts of value; forecast 20–17 covers by +3.
- Model implies 62% ATS cover for HOU at +6
- Projected total (37) below market (43.5) → Under lean; My data model signals edge on the Texans
Notes: ATS% and ML% derived from model forecast with historical residual volatility. Treat total as lower confidence than