TNF • Week 11
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Forecast: NYJ 23 – NE 30
Projected margin (fair line): NYJ +13
Against the Spread
Market line: NE -13
Pick: NYJ +13 (covers)
Edge: 6 pts fair vs market • Cover margin vs line: 13
Estimated cover probability: 67%
Moneyline
Winner: New England Patriots
Estimated win probability: =82%
Total (O/U)
Market total: 42.5
Projected total: 53
Tilt: Over 43.5 (small lean)
Why this leans New York Jets & Over
- Projected line -7 vs market -13 → 6 pts of value; forecast 30–23 covers by +6.
- Model implies 67% ATS cover for NYJ at +13
- Projected total (53) Above market (43.5) → Over lean; My data model signals edge on the Jets
Notes: ATS% and ML% derived from model forecast with historical residual volatility. Treat total as lower confidence than