TNF • Week 9
Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins
Forecast: BAL 31 – MIA 25
Projected margin (fair line): MN 1.5
Against the Spread
Market line: MIA +7.5
Pick: MIA +7.5 (covers)
Edge: 1.5 pts fair vs market • Cover margin vs line: 7.5
Estimated cover probability: 54%
Moneyline
Winner: Baltimore Ravens
Estimated win probability: =69%
Total (O/U)
Market total: 51
Projected total: 56
Tilt: Over 51 (small lean)
Why this leans Miami Dolphins & Over
- Projected line -1.5 vs market 7.5 → 1.5 pts of value; forecast 31–25 covers by +1.5.
- Model implies 54% ATS cover for MIA at 7.5
- Projected total (56) above market (51) → Over lean; My data model signals edge on Miami, the Dolphins are actually 7-2 ATS the game after pulling any upset under Tua, including 5-1 ATS in his last six games in this spot.
Notes: ATS% and ML% derived from model forecast with historical residual volatility. Treat total as lower confidence than