TNF • Week 5
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
Forecast: LAR 27 – SF 16
Projected margin (fair line): LAR −10.5
Against the Spread
Market line: NYG 7.5
Pick: NYG 7.5 (covers)
Edge: +2.0 pts fair vs market • Cover margin vs line: +2.5
Estimated cover probability: ≈57%
TNF • Week 6
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
Forecast: PHI 23 – NYG 16
Projected margin (fair line): PHI -5
Against the Spread
Market line: NYG 7.5
Pick: NYG 7.5 (covers)
Edge: +2.5 pts fair vs market • Cover margin vs line: +2.5
Estimated cover probability: 57%
Moneyline
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles
Estimated win probability: =72%
Total (O/U)
Market total: 40.5
Projected total: 40
Tilt: Under 40.5 (small lean)
Why this leans New York Giants & Under
- Fair line 5 vs market 7.5 → +1.5 pts of value; forecast 23–17 covers by +1.5.
- Model implies 57% ATS cover for NYG at 7.5
- Projected total (40) below market (40.5) → Under lean; TNF + PHI injuries support slower scoring.
Notes: ATS% and ML% derived from model forecast with historical residual volatility. Treat total as lower confidence than